Source:Horn Review
For much of the past century, Ethiopia and Yemen have maintained a relationship shaped by geographical proximity, commercial interests and the changing political landscape of the Red Sea. Their relations have endured the collapse of monarchies, revolutionary governments, ideological confrontations and shifting regional alliances. Yet these political transformations have never diminished the strategic significance of the waters separating them. As competition over the Red Sea intensifies and maritime security becomes increasingly central to regional economic stability, Ethiopia has compelling reasons to reassess its engagement with Yemen. The challenge is no longer simply to preserve an established diplomatic relationship, but to translate historical connections into a more consequential foreign policy partnership. This requires sustained attention to developments across the Yemeni coastline, recognition of the interests both countries hold in each other’s stability, and a diplomatic approach capable of adapting to changing circumstances.
The foundations of modern diplomatic relations date to March 1935, when Emperor Haile Selassie and Imam Yahya concluded a Treaty of Friendship and Commerce. The agreement formalized connections already sustained through generations of commercial exchange and migration. Yemeni merchant communities had established themselves in Ethiopian urban centers, contributing to trade and creating social relationships that extended beyond government diplomacy. These connections survived successive political transformations, demonstrating that relations between the two countries have often rested on interests more durable than the political circumstances of any particular period. Their significance lies in the continuity of engagement rather than the political arrangements through which that engagement occurred.
The Cold War further demonstrated the adaptability of this relationship. South Yemen initially supported Eritrean liberation movements before reconsidering its regional position as Ethiopia’s Derg government strengthened relations with the Soviet Union. During the 1977 to 1978 Ogaden War, South Yemen supported Ethiopia against Somalia, and the two governments subsequently developed closer political and military cooperation. Their rapprochement culminated in a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in December 1979. The realignment illustrated the limits of ideological commitments when confronted with changing security interests. Political differences did not disappear, but strategic calculations increasingly determined the direction of relations. The experience established an important precedent for Ethiopian diplomacy: regional interests can accommodate changes in political orientation when governments recognize the practical value of cooperation.
Following Yemen’s unification in 1990 and Eritrea’s secession in 1993, Ethiopia’s maritime position changed fundamentally. Without direct sovereign access to the Red Sea, Ethiopia became increasingly dependent on neighboring maritime corridors and the political stability of the surrounding region. Relations with Yemen continued through an economic, scientific, technical and trade cooperation agreement signed in April 1999 and a security cooperation agreement concluded that October. These arrangements reflected an effort to preserve institutional cooperation despite the changing regional order. Yemen’s subsequent internal fragmentation, however, introduced complications requiring a more deliberate and flexible Ethiopian diplomatic approach. The historical relationship remains relevant, but its contemporary importance derives increasingly from Ethiopia’s economic dependence on maritime security and the political conditions prevailing across the Arabian shore.
Yemen occupies one of the most consequential geographical positions in the Red Sea system. Its coastline borders maritime routes connecting the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean through Bab al Mandab and the Suez Canal. Political and security developments along this coast can influence commercial navigation, shipping insurance, international trade and regional stability. The International Maritime Organization has repeatedly warned that attacks against commercial vessels threaten the security of shipping and the stability of international supply chains. For Ethiopia, whose external commerce depends heavily on Djibouti, instability affecting these routes is not a distant maritime concern. It can increase transportation costs, disrupt supply chains and weaken the competitiveness of an economy seeking industrial expansion and stronger international market access. Although Ethiopia does not possess a Red Sea coastline, its economic future remains closely connected to the security of the surrounding maritime environment.
This reality gives Ethiopia a compelling interest in maintaining an informed and active diplomatic presence in relation to Yemen. The country’s political landscape has produced competing centers of authority, while territorial administration remains an important factor in its maritime position. Ethiopia’s foreign policy must therefore recognize both the formal structures of diplomatic representation and the practical realities determining conditions along Yemen’s coastline. Addis Ababa would benefit from maintaining constructive channels of communication capable of responding to these realities without becoming entangled in Yemen’s domestic political competition. Such an approach would reflect Ethiopia’s longstanding tradition of diplomatic engagement across different political systems and changing regional alignments. Rather than allowing bilateral relations to depend exclusively on particular political circumstances, Ethiopia should cultivate lasting partnerships grounded in common economic, humanitarian and maritime interests.
This approach would not require Ethiopia to abandon its established diplomatic principles or endorse the political positions of particular authorities. It would instead reflect the recognition that geographical interests endure even when political circumstances change. Ethiopia’s historical experience demonstrates that productive relations can develop across substantial ideological differences when both sides identify common priorities. Contemporary diplomacy should therefore emphasize continuity, discretion and practical cooperation, while remaining consistent with international obligations and the broader objective of regional stability. Such engagement would strengthen Ethiopia’s diplomatic presence and create opportunities for both countries to advance their long term strategic interests.
The importance of this engagement becomes clearer when considered alongside Ethiopia’s wider maritime ambitions. Djibouti remains its principal commercial gateway, with World Bank assessments identifying the Djibouti corridor as the route carrying approximately 95 percent of Ethiopian trade at the time of the assessment. Somaliland’s Berbera port and Kenya’s Lamu corridor offer additional opportunities for diversification. These alternatives could reduce the economic risks associated with excessive dependence on one route, but infrastructure expansion alone cannot eliminate Ethiopia’s exposure to instability in the wider Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Maritime security depends on political conditions extending beyond the territories through which Ethiopian cargo passes. Ethiopia must consequently complement port diversification with a diplomatic strategy that gives sustained attention to developments along Yemen’s maritime approaches. Expanding access to ports and strengthening the security of the routes serving them should be understood as complementary elements of the same national economic strategy.
Yemen possesses equally important reasons to cultivate stronger relations with Ethiopia. Years of conflict have weakened its commercial institutions, damaged infrastructure and disrupted established trading networks. Ethiopia represents a substantial neighboring market and a potential partner in agricultural commerce, livestock trade, manufactured goods, logistics and associated services. In the longer term, improved economic connections with the African shore could support Yemen’s recovery and reduce its dependence on a narrow range of regional relationships. Ethiopia, meanwhile, could benefit from renewed commercial links extending through Yemen toward the Arabian Peninsula. These opportunities would require greater political stability, reliable institutions and improvements in transport infrastructure, but they provide a foundation for cooperation that reaches beyond immediate security concerns.
The economic relationship could also acquire greater strategic importance as Ethiopia pursues industrial development and regional commercial integration. Reliable maritime access is essential not only for importing goods but also for expanding exports and attracting investment into manufacturing and logistics. Yemen’s eventual economic reconstruction could create opportunities for commercial cooperation and the restoration of trade networks historically connecting the two shores. Neither country would benefit from treating the other merely as a neighboring market. Their geographical proximity offers the possibility of a broader economic relationship in which transport, investment, commercial services and regional infrastructure reinforce one another. Realizing that potential would require gradual engagement and credible institutional commitments rather than ambitious agreements unsupported by prevailing conditions.
Human mobility represents another significant dimension of their shared interests. Yemen has long served as a transit country for Ethiopian migrants traveling toward the Arabian Peninsula, exposing many to trafficking, exploitation and dangerous maritime crossings. According to the International Organization for Migration, approximately 506,600 outgoing movements were recorded along the wider Eastern Route in 2025, while an estimated 132,300 migrants were stranded in Yemen at the end of that year. These figures demonstrate that Yemen’s internal conditions have direct humanitarian consequences for Ethiopian citizens and place migration among the most important practical areas for diplomatic cooperation. The protection of migrants, humanitarian access and voluntary repatriation therefore deserve a more prominent position within Ethiopia’s relations with Yemen.
The implications extend beyond humanitarian considerations. Irregular migration networks generate insecurity across transit corridors, expose vulnerable communities to organized criminal activity and place additional pressure on local institutions. For Ethiopia, the inability to protect citizens moving through Yemen can produce social and economic consequences at home. For Yemen, unregulated migration creates further difficulties for communities already affected by prolonged instability. Cooperation on migration would therefore serve both humanitarian and security interests. More consistent diplomatic consultation, coordination with international organizations and practical arrangements for protecting vulnerable migrants could provide measurable benefits even before broader political and economic cooperation becomes possible.
These overlapping interests suggest that Ethiopia’s engagement with Yemen should be organized around a limited but carefully defined set of priorities. Maritime security should occupy a central position, particularly the protection of commercial navigation and the reduction of disruptions affecting Ethiopian trade. Economic diplomacy should seek to preserve existing commercial relationships while identifying realistic opportunities for future cooperation. Humanitarian engagement should prioritize migrant protection, voluntary returns and access to assistance. At the political level, Ethiopia should maintain sufficient diplomatic flexibility to communicate effectively as conditions evolve, while encouraging stability and avoiding unnecessary involvement in internal disputes. These priorities would provide greater continuity than a policy shaped primarily by reactions to individual crises.
A more active policy would nevertheless require careful management of Ethiopia’s wider regional relationships. Yemen’s political circumstances are closely intertwined with the interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other external actors, whose positions influence both its internal balance and the security environment of the Red Sea. Ethiopia maintains important economic and diplomatic relationships across the Gulf, making it essential that engagement with Yemen does not become associated with regional polarization. Addis Ababa should frame its approach around broadly shared interests in secure navigation, economic recovery, humanitarian protection and political stability. This would allow Ethiopia to advance its own objectives while preserving the diplomatic space necessary for cooperation with different regional partners.
The more fundamental challenge is ensuring that Ethiopia’s policy becomes anticipatory rather than reactive. Maritime disruptions often draw diplomatic attention only after they produce measurable economic consequences, while political developments in neighboring regions may receive insufficient consideration until they affect established trade routes. Ethiopia’s dependence on the Red Sea demands a more sustained understanding of the political and security conditions affecting its maritime environment. Regular diplomatic assessments, institutional coordination and closer attention to changes along Yemen’s coastline would strengthen the country’s capacity to anticipate risks and identify opportunities. Such measures would not eliminate uncertainty, but they would reduce Ethiopia’s reliance on responses formulated after regional developments have already constrained its options.
The history of Ethiopia and Yemen demonstrates that their relationship has repeatedly adapted to profound political transformations. From the diplomatic exchanges of the 1930s to the strategic realignments of the Cold War and the institutional cooperation of the 1990s, successive governments have found reasons to preserve relations despite differences in political orientation. Today, the stakes are considerably greater. Maritime security, economic diversification, migration and regional competition have made developments across the Red Sea increasingly consequential for both countries. Ethiopia should therefore approach Yemen as a permanent strategic consideration, investing in durable diplomatic relationships and practical cooperation that can withstand political uncertainty. The enduring value of the relationship lies not in any particular government or political arrangement, but in the recognition that the prosperity and security of both countries are closely connected to the stability of the maritime region they share.
By Makda Girma, Researcher, Horn Review
